Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
- The predictive model expects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 9.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been an integral part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 29.8% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- When it comes to air yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a massive 68.0 per game.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 79.0 yards per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Lions have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the league.
- The Lions offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
