Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Albert Okwuegbunam from EV Insight

Albert OkwuegbunamReceiving Yards

Right now, Albert Okwuegbunam’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Albert Okwuegbunam has run fewer routes this year (62.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (36.5%).
Albert Okwuegbunam has been among the best tight ends in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging an impressive 6.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Albert Okwuegbunam’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.7% to 66.9%.
Albert Okwuegbunam’s pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging just 4.89 yards-per-target vs a 7.24 rate last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.65 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards