Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Jaguars
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- A.J. Brown has run fewer routes this year (93.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (77.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to total 7.6 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
- A.J. Brown has accumulated a colossal 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wideouts.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
