Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Zach Wilson from EV Insight

Zach WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-114) after it opened @ 206.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Jets have been the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to attempt 37.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
The New York Jets offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the league.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Zach Wilson has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging 182.0 yards per game while ranking in the 18th percentile.
Zach Wilson has been among the worst precision passers in football since the start of last season with a 56.0% Completion%, checking in at the 3rd percentile.
Zach Wilson has been among the worst per-play QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 6.19 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 9th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
235
Passing Yards