Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (+110/-143).
The public has bet the OVER up to 274.5 (+110) after it opened @ 273.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
- Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 271.0 yards per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 64.0% to 72.0%.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 3rd-fewest yards in the league (just 201.0 per game) against the Bills defense since the start of last season.
- The Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.34 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards
294
Passing Yards
