Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (+110/-143).

The public has bet the OVER up to 274.5 (+110) after it opened @ 273.5 (-113).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 271.0 yards per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.
Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 64.0% to 72.0%.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 3rd-fewest yards in the league (just 201.0 per game) against the Bills defense since the start of last season.
The Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.34 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards