Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Jaguars
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 212.5 (-131) after it opened @ 245.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 37.2 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.0 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in football against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (61.2%).
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, yielding 5.57 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.80 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
192
Passing Yards
192
Passing Yards
