Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 212.5 (-131) after it opened @ 245.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 37.2 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in football against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (61.2%).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, yielding 5.57 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.80 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
192
Passing Yards