Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell from EV Insight

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 212.5 (-110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-110).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 10.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.4 plays per game.
Our trusted projections expect Sam Howell to attempt 36.4 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.

Cons

The projections expect the Commanders to run the 11th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (67.5%).
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
221
Passing Yards