Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Cowboys vs. Patriots
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 211.5 (-113) after it opened @ 214.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Patriots are a massive 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Mac Jones’s throwing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 64.5% to 69.0%.
Cons
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 6th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 206.0 per game) against the Cowboys defense since the start of last season.
- Since the start of last season, the formidable Cowboys defense has allowed a mere 68.8% Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.
- Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards
254
Passing Yards
