Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Ravens vs. Bills
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 230.5 (-105) after it opened @ 229.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Lamar Jackson has been among the best QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 240.0 yards per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.
- Lamar Jackson’s passing effectiveness has been refined this season, accumulating 8.49 yards-per-target compared to a mere 7.48 mark last season.
- The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the 5th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per play.
- The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 31.3 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
184
Passing Yards
184
Passing Yards
