Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kyler Murray from EV Insight

Kyler MurrayPassing Yards

Right now, Kyler Murray’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 231.5 (-110) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.50 seconds per play.
Kyler Murray has attempted 36.6 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 82nd percentile among quarterbacks.
Kyler Murray has been among the top quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 248.0 yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest level in football vs. the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season (71.1%).
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 6th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the NFL.
Kyler Murray’s passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 68.0% to 62.4%.
Kyler Murray’s throwing effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling a mere 5.71 yards-per-target vs a 7.61 figure last season.
Opposing teams have passed for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 194.0 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
233
Passing Yards