Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 277.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 277.5 (-129) after it opened @ 276.5 (-117).

Pros

The model projects the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.
Kirk Cousins has been among the top passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 277.0 yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in the league vs. the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season (73.9%).

Cons

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
The Panthers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.02 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
287
Passing Yards