Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 251.5 (-137) after it opened @ 262.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to attempt 37.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
Kirk Cousins has been among the leading QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 254.0 yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

Cons

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Kirk Cousins’s passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 64.8% to 61.6%.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 216.0 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
258
Passing Yards