Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Ravens vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 287.5 yards (-125/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 287.5 (-125) after it opened @ 282.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards
250
Passing Yards
