Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 287.5 yards (-125/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 287.5 (-125) after it opened @ 282.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards