Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 265.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 265.5 (-110) after it opened @ 266.5 (-110).

Pros

The model projects the Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may decline.
The leading projections forecast Joe Burrow to attempt 37.0 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
Joe Burrow has been among the top QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 274.0 yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Cons

The projections expect this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 119.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Joe Burrow’s throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 54.0%.
Joe Burrow’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a mere 4.84 yards-per-target vs a 7.63 mark last season.
The Titans cornerbacks project as the 8th-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
281
Passing Yards