Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jared Goff from EV Insight

Jared GoffPassing Yards

Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 251.5 (-130) after it opened @ 258.5 (-115).

Pros

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jared Goff has attempted 37.5 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 95th percentile among QBs.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 3rd-most yards in the NFL (264.0 per game) against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest level in football versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season (74.2%).

Cons

The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.4% pass rate.
Jared Goff’s throwing precision has diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.2% to 57.2%.
The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
266
Passing Yards