Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jalen Hurts from EV Insight

Jalen HurtsPassing Yards

Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-110) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Jalen Hurts’s passing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 60.3% to 66.4%.
Jalen Hurts’s passing efficiency has improved this year, totaling 8.22 yards-per-target compared to just 7.19 mark last year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season (72.4%).

Cons

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 28.3 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
188
Passing Yards