Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jalen HurtsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Jaguars
Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-110) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Jalen Hurts’s passing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 60.3% to 66.4%.
- Jalen Hurts’s passing efficiency has improved this year, totaling 8.22 yards-per-target compared to just 7.19 mark last year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season (72.4%).
Cons
- The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 28.3 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all QBs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
188
Passing Yards
188
Passing Yards
