Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jacoby Brissett from EV Insight

Jacoby BrissettPassing Yards

Right now, Jacoby Brissett’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-115) after it opened @ 211.5 (-115).

Pros

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Jacoby Brissett’s passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 60.5% to 68.1%.
Jacoby Brissett’s throwing efficiency has been refined this season, compiling 7.05 yards-per-target compared to a measly 5.57 rate last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to attempt 30.7 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
Jacoby Brissett has been among the weakest quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 146.0 yards per game while grading out in the 13th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.74 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards