Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Daniel JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Seahawks
Right now, Daniel Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 232.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-110).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 5th-most yards in the league (244.0 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season.
- The Seahawks pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, surrendering 8.47 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the NFL.
- As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Seattle’s collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Giants to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- In this game, Daniel Jones is anticipated by our trusted projection set to average the fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.5.
- The New York Giants O-line grades out as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Daniel Jones has been among the least efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging just 6.15 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 24th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards
241
Passing Yards
