Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Daniel Jones from EV Insight

Daniel JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Daniel Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 191.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 191.5 (-110) after it opened @ 199.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per play.
The Chicago Bears defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.59 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-most in the NFL.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst group of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Cons

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 31.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards