Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Daniel JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Bears
Right now, Daniel Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 191.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 191.5 (-110) after it opened @ 199.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per play.
- The Chicago Bears defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.59 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-most in the NFL.
- The Chicago Bears cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst group of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 31.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards
202
Passing Yards
