Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Dak Prescott from EV Insight

Dak PrescottPassing Yards

Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The model projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
Dak Prescott’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.4% to 68.5%.

Cons

The Cowboys are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.1% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in football vs. the Patriots defense since the start of last season (67.6%).
The New England Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.47 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-fewest in football.
The New England Patriots linebackers profile as the 8th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards