Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Cooper Rush from EV Insight

Cooper RushPassing Yards

Right now, Cooper Rush’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the OVER up to 229.5 (-108) after it opened @ 227.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Dallas Cowboys O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 2nd-most yards in football (265.0 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.

Cons

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.73 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have utilized play action on just 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
266
Passing Yards