Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Steelers
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 236.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 236.5 (-110) after it opened @ 235.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The model projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.2% pass rate.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
- The Texans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the league versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season (65.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
243
Passing Yards
243
Passing Yards
