Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Bryce Young

Bryce YoungPassing Yards

Right now, Bryce Young’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 215.5 (-129) after it opened @ 219.5 (-119).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (265.0 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season.

Cons

The model projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.1% pass rate.
The Panthers have run the 4th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
Bryce Young has been among the least accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a 58.4% Completion%, grading out in the 21st percentile.
Bryce Young has been among the least effective QBs in the league this year, averaging just 4.41 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 3rd percentile.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota’s safety corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards