NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Bryce YoungPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Vikings
Right now, Bryce Young’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 215.5 (-129) after it opened @ 219.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (265.0 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The model projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.1% pass rate.
- The Panthers have run the 4th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
- Bryce Young has been among the least accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a 58.4% Completion%, grading out in the 21st percentile.
- Bryce Young has been among the least effective QBs in the league this year, averaging just 4.41 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 3rd percentile.
- When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota’s safety corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards
245
Passing Yards
