Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brian Hoyer from EV Insight

Brian HoyerPassing Yards

Right now, Brian Hoyer’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 190.5 (-131) after it opened @ 200.5 (-115).

Pros

The New England Patriots will be starting backup QB Brian Hoyer in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Patriots are a giant 9.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Green Bay Packers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 220.0 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in football against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season (68.2%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards