Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+106/-137).

The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (+106) after it opened @ 217.5 (-114).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Cons

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Baker Mayfield has attempted a mere 15.4 passes per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 5th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield has been among the worst QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 90.0 yards per game while ranking in the 5th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the fewest yards in the NFL (just 192.0 per game) versus the Saints defense since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the lowest rate in the league against the Saints defense since the start of last season (63.6%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards