Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 202.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 202.5 (-115) after it opened @ 211.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
- The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks rank as the 8th-worst CB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.5 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Baker Mayfield’s passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.9% to 50.9%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
216
Passing Yards
216
Passing Yards
