Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 202.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 202.5 (-115) after it opened @ 211.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks rank as the 8th-worst CB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.5 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Baker Mayfield’s passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.9% to 50.9%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
216
Passing Yards