WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Anthony RichardsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Rams
Right now, Anthony Richardson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-110) after it opened @ 194.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Colts to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.9 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Los Angeles cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Our trusted projections expect the Colts to be the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Anthony Richardson has been among the worst per-play passers in the NFL this year, averaging just 5.73 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 15th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards
245
Passing Yards
