Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Andy Dalton from EV Insight

Andy DaltonPassing Yards

Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-127) after it opened @ 224.5 (-115).

Pros

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 37.4 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 5th-most yards in the NFL (254.0 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints have called the 7th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 57.6 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
Andy Dalton has been among the bottom passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 183.0 yards per game while grading out in the 21st percentile.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards