Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zack MossRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Ravens vs. Colts
Right now, Zack Moss’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
- The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 7th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
- THE BLITZ projects Zack Moss to accrue 18.9 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Zack Moss’s ground effectiveness (4.73 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (75th percentile among RBs).
Cons
- The Colts are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 39.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 90 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
- The Baltimore Ravens linebackers project as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
