Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tony Pollard from EV Insight

Tony PollardRushing Yards

Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (+100) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).

Pros

The Cowboys are an enormous 11.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.43 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to garner 17.7 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has produced the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, surrendering 4.87 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Tony Pollard has been less successful in generating extra rushing yardage this season, averaging 2.56 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.82 rate last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards