Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Giants vs. Cowboys
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 75.5 (-105) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to total 18.0 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among running backs.
- Saquon Barkley has been a more important option in his team’s running game this season (72.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (58.1%).
- Saquon Barkley has grinded out 51.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (83rd percentile).
- Saquon Barkley’s ground effectiveness has been refined this season, compiling 5.93 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.28 rate last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 2nd-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 43.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New York Giants have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 61.7 plays per game.
- The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
