Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Commanders vs. Eagles
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 63.5 (-145) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to total 13.7 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- The Washington Commanders defensive ends project as the 5th-best group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
