Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Leonard Fournette from EV Insight

Leonard FournetteRushing Yards

Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to accumulate 17.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Leonard Fournette has been a more important option in his team’s running game this year (81.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (66.0%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Leonard Fournette has picked up 65.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (96th percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 36.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards