Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Colts vs. Chiefs
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 88.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.2% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to total 20.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- Jonathan Taylor has earned 84.4% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Cons
- The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
104
Rushing Yards
104
Rushing Yards
