Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jeff WilsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Broncos vs. 49ers
Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 6th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to accrue 13.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be much more involved in his offense’s running game this week (48.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (29.6% in games he has played).
- Jeffery Wilson has grinded out 51.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (83rd percentile).
- The Denver Broncos defensive ends profile as the 7th-worst collection of DEs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.5 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 10th-least yards in the league (just 105 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
- The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
