Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Broncos vs. 49ers
Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- Javonte Williams has earned 45.8% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
- Javonte Williams has grinded out 50.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (81st percentile).
- Javonte Williams’s ground effectiveness has gotten better this season, compiling 4.94 yards-per-carry compared to a mere 4.17 rate last season.
- Javonte Williams has been among the top RBs in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.86 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.0 plays per game.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has had the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, allowing just 3.96 yards-per-carry.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards
46
Rushing Yards
