Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Conner from EV Insight

James ConnerRushing Yards

Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-125) after it opened @ 56.5 (-110).

Pros

The Arizona Cardinals will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to accumulate 15.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
James Conner has generated 63.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (90th percentile).

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 6th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 38.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing just 4.33 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards