Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-125) after it opened @ 56.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects James Conner to accumulate 15.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
- James Conner has generated 63.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (90th percentile).
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cardinals are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 6th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 38.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing just 4.33 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
