Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Lions vs. Falcons
Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-105/-124).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-105) after it opened @ 46.5 (-112).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 42.4% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Jahmyr Gibbs to earn 14.5 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- Opposing squads have run for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (133 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles project as the 4th-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
