Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 38.5 (-133) after it opened @ 42.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.4 plays per game.
- Devin Singletary has averaged 45.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (76th percentile).
- Devin Singletary’s running efficiency (4.65 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (80th percentile among RBs).
- The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 35.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a less important option in his offense’s rushing attack this week (36.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.4% in games he has played).
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Rushing Yards
35
Rushing Yards
