Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 18.4 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has averaged 89.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (99th percentile).
The Cleveland Browns defense has produced the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering 4.96 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.6 plays per game.
The Cleveland Browns defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards