MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Titans vs. Raiders
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 78.5 (-110) after it opened @ 87.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 64.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accumulate 21.5 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has averaged 95.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (99th percentile).
- The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.47 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s run game this week (77.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (89.9% in games he has played).
- Derrick Henry’s rushing effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating a measly 3.01 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.31 mark last year.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, allowing just 4.23 yards-per-carry.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards
90
Rushing Yards
