Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darrell HendersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, Darrell Henderson’s rushing yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- Darrell Henderson has grinded out 53.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (83rd percentile).
- The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 35.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.46 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to be a less important option in his offense’s rushing attack this week (41.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (56.8% in games he has played).
- Darrell Henderson has been among the worst RBs in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 2.39 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Rushing Yards
40
Rushing Yards
