Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Damien Harris from EV Insight

Damien HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Damien Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 44.5 (-129) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Damien Harris to earn 11.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
Damien Harris has garnered 53.3% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Damien Harris has picked up 59.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (90th percentile).
Damien Harris has improved when it comes to generating extra rushing yardage this season, accumulating 3.75 yards-after-contact compared to a 2.75 figure last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 57.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.6 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the least yards in the NFL (just 83 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends grade out as the 6th-best group of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards