NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Commanders vs. Bills
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-127) after it opened @ 55.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
- Brian Robinson has been on the field for 44.8% of his offense’s snaps since the start of last season, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to accumulate 15.0 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.
- Brian Robinson has generated 64.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (91st percentile).
- The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Cons
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing squads have run for the 4th-least yards in the league (just 97 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
