Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+115/-150).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 52.5 (-150) after it opened @ 55.5 (-120).

Pros

The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Aaron Jones has averaged 54.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (84th percentile).
Aaron Jones’s rushing efficiency has gotten a boost this season, totaling 8.58 yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.69 rate last season.
Aaron Jones has been more successful in grinding out extra rushing yardage this season, totaling 5.35 yards-after-contact vs a 3.18 figure last season.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 37.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Aaron Jones has been much less involved in his team’s run game this season (37.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (49.9%).
Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-least yards in football (just 90 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Rushing Yards