Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Ravens vs. Colts
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+108/-139).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+108) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Zay Flowers to earn 7.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Zay Flowers has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a stellar 88.7% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Ravens are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the league.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 10th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 138.0) versus wide receivers since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
