Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zay Flowers from EV Insight

Zay FlowersReceiving Yards

Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+108/-139).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+108) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Flowers to earn 7.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Zay Flowers has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a stellar 88.7% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The Ravens are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 10th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 138.0) versus wide receivers since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards