Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 45.5 (-137) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.25 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.
- The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
