Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 95.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 95.5 (-137) after it opened @ 82.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 11.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 31.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has put up a colossal 136.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been among the leading wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 97.0 yards per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 122.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, surrendering 6.96 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
99
Receiving Yards