Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tyler LockettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Seahawks vs. Falcons
Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 60.5 (-101) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to accrue 7.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
- Tyler Lockett has put up a monstrous 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- Tyler Lockett’s 64.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 93rd percentile for WRs.
- Tyler Lockett has been among the best pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 64.0 yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
