Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 44.5 (-125) after it opened @ 46.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Tyler Higbee has run a route on 84.9% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 6.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Higbee has compiled a whopping 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.46 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
Tyler Higbee’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 67.0%.
Tyler Higbee’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, averaging a measly 6.07 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards